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    MarketWatch First Take: Will Bernanke's rebound have to wait? - MarketWatch

    Commentary: Retail sales figures disappoint, along with inventory numbers

    LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Things are looking a little dicey for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's plan for a second-half economic recovery, if two data points Wednesday are any indication.

    April's retail sales numbers came in below expectations, suggesting that the engine driving the nation's economy -- consumer spending -- isn't running as strong as once believed. Sales fell 0.4% from March, and could be revised further downward.

    Without a slight uptick in autos, of all sectors, the figure would have been down 0.5% month over month. See full story.

    Economists had expected the month-to-month sales figure to be flat to slightly up, but that didn't pan out. And year-to-year, the sales plunge approached double-digit territory.

    If that wasn't enough, businesses' efforts to cut back their inventories in March fell flat -- as sales fell even faster. Companies were unable to make any progress in getting a handle on bloated inventories. See full story.

    Many still wonder whether a little more air needs to be let out of the economy.

    Meny Grauman at CIBC WorldMarkets wrote in a note to clients: "The green shoots of economic recovery are looking a little less green, especially for American consumers. Personal spending is no longer in freefall as it was at the end of 2008, but April's weaker-than-expected retail sales report emphasizes that talk of a full-fledged economic recovery is still premature."

    Sure, Bernanke could still be right. After all, he is the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Plus, the second half of the year isn't here yet.

    Still, it's only six weeks away. In the economic garden, that may not be enough time for green shoots to turn to full-fledged blossoms.

    -- Russ Britt, Los Angeles bureau chief

    via marketwatch.com

    • 14 May 2009
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