Silvio Berlusconi’s faith in his ability to survive the defection from his party of more than 30 rebels could be put to the test as early as this week if parliament goes ahead with an opposition motion to dismiss a junior minister under investigation for corruption.
“There will be no government crisis and no early elections. There is a lot of work to do,” the prime minister told a newspaper, expressing confidence that his centre-right coalition with the hardline Northern League could still command a majority in parliament.
Political sources said Mr Berlusconi had embarked on a “shopping expedition” in an attempt to woo wavering centrist parliamentarians with promises of government posts.
La Repubblica, a pro-opposition newspaper, commented: “The destiny of nations usually rests on wars, revolutions, economic and social twists but our future depends on a phone call. . .”
Italy’s crisis began last Thursday when Mr Berlusconi sought to put an end to months of feuding with Gianfranco Fini, co-founder of their People of Liberty, by setting in motion a process to expel him and three of his allies from the party.
But Mr Berlusconi got more than he bargained for when, the next day, 33 of Mr Fini’s supporters in the lower house set up a breakaway faction, in theory depriving the government of its majority.
But Mr Fini said the faction would support Mr Berlusconi on condition his coalition implemented promised reforms and gave up legislation tailored to the prime minister’s personal needs, such as attempts to extend his immunity from prosecution in the courts.
Mr Fini, as speaker of parliament, is due to convene party heads on Monday night to decide when to table an opposition motion of no confidence in Giacomo Caliendo, a junior justice minister under investigation for his alleged role in a secret society of politicians and businessmen.
Mr Caliendo denies wrongdoing and has refused to step down. Mr Berlusconi could ask him to resign or seek an early recess by abandoning pending legislation. A vote against Mr Caliendo would make Mr Berlusconi a lame duck.
Giorgio Napolitano, head of state, could be faced with the choice of dissolving parliament and calling elections or entrusting someone to form a caretaker administration.

